The price of gold fell below the 1600 mark once again

Since the US dollar was strengthened by the optimistic economic data announced by the United States last week, international gold prices once again fell below the 1600 US dollar mark and announced that the rally since the 1560 U.S. dollar has ended. Gao Zier precious metals analyst Wang Zongxin believes that gold and silver mid-term downward trend is difficult to change, this year's gold price is difficult to reproduce the end of the previous year's rising market, is expected to usher in the first quarter of next year will be a phased low, investors now do not blindly buy the bottom.

The domestic gold and silver prices fell across the board yesterday as a result of the international gold price trend. Domestic spot gold and silver also fell yesterday. Among them, Shanghai Gold's gold Au99.95, Au99.99 and gold Au100g all closed at around 326 yuan per gram, down by around 2 yuan; Silver's late-delivery traded product Ag(T+D) closed at 6,120 yuan per kg, down by 55 yuan. . Shanghai Huatong Platinum Silver Market No. 1 spot price of gold per kg near 6,125 yuan, down 65 yuan.

Judging from the current international gold and silver price monthly line, this month's pattern of cross stars or reverse T with a relatively long upper shadow line is no longer big, from the quarter line, the highest gold point in the fourth quarter of this year is 1802.60, the lowest 1560.10 Silver has a maximum of 35.66 and a minimum of 28.09. Last week, ETF-SPDR significantly reduced its holdings by 25.41 tons to 1254.57 tons. Consecutive sharp reductions have caused market concerns. As of the end of last week, COMEX gold's total positions were 427,700, which was far below the 523,300 in early September, while ** net long positions were 150,500, a sharp drop of 25% from September.

At the end of this year, it is difficult to reproduce the rising market. In the past 10 years, the three or four quarters of each year are often the sales season for gold, and it is also the time for gold prices to rise even higher, but the prices after September this year are completely different from those in previous years. The price of gold is hitting a record high of 1920. After the record high of the US dollar, it fell sharply. At present, the lowest level has been lowered to around 1550. Why did such a trend occur?

Gao Zier precious metals analyst Wang Zongxin believes that there are three main reasons why gold is not booming during the peak season. First, the US 3A credit rating was downgraded to become the trigger for this round of plunge prices. The deteriorating debt crisis in Europe and the United States has weakened the lending capacity of banks and other financial institutions, resulting in insufficient liquidity of funds in the market, and various types of risk assets and currencies. There has been a lot of selling, and gold has not been avoided. Second, the economic data of the United States has continued to improve in recent months. The unemployment rate and the number of initial jobless claims have continued to decrease. The US dollar has thus strengthened, resulting in a relative weakening of dollar-denominated gold; Third, the sharp increase in international hedge funds against the US dollar suggests that the US dollar will continue its mid-term gains, while the euro should decline accordingly, leaving the gold market under further pressure.

Faced with the "double bottom" do not blindly bargain-hunting for the trend of the market outlook, Wang Zongxin said that the current price of gold has not completely ended the downward trend, investors must guard against the second bottom price in the first quarter of next year.

He believes that the support of gold at the first-line price of $1,550 is very clear. In the first quarter of next year, gold prices are likely to further test the support of this line. If there is any sign of stabilization, it shows that the bottoming is successful. If the 1550 line is broken down again, the market outlook will be very high. It may face further declines, after which the target below will see 1500 or even 1470. By combining the specific changes on the market, investors can hedge their risks by purchasing physical gold. Compared with leveraged investors, they need to do a good job in advance.

Compared with the trend of silver, Baiyin wants to see a sharp upward trend next year. It must effectively stand above the high of 35.60 in early November of this year. Otherwise, it will be difficult for silver to return once the global economy has not improved. The price at the beginning of the year. If the commodity market cannot change its downtrend, silver investment in the first quarter of next year should be dominated by rallies, while physical investors should temporarily avoid buying large amounts of silver, and should adopt a state where gold and silver are jointly held.

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